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Primerica, Inc. (PRI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • EPS and revenue beat with resilient margins. Diluted adjusted operating EPS was $5.46 vs S&P Global consensus $5.20; GAAP diluted EPS was $5.40. Total revenue was $793.3M vs consensus $789.9M, while adjusted operating revenue was $796.0M, up 7% YoY . Primary EPS and revenue consensus from S&P Global marked with asterisks below (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • ISP momentum offset softer life sales. ISP sales rose 15% YoY to $3.5B; ending client asset values reached a record $120B (+14% YoY). Term Life margins held (benefits & claims 57.5%, operating margin 23.0%) despite lower policies issued (-11% YoY) and productivity at 0.20 .
  • Guidance: Term Life full‑year ratios maintained (ADP ~5%, claims ~58%, DAC+comm ~12%, operating margin ~22%); opex +$40M (6–8%) reiterated. Management raised FY ISP sales outlook to “above 10%,” up from “less than double digits” last quarter .
  • Capital return and balance sheet remain supportive. PRI repurchased $129M and declared a $1.04 dividend; RBC ~490% with $371M holdco cash, supporting buybacks and growth investments .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • ISP strength and mix tailwinds: Sales +15% YoY ($3.5B), asset‑based fees +17% YoY on mix shift to managed accounts and Canadian funds; demand for variable annuities elevated. CEO: “Continued growth in our Investment and Savings Products segment… fueled another quarter of strong financial results.”
    • Stable Term Life profitability: Benefits & claims 57.5% (largely consistent YoY) and operating margin 23.0% despite softer volumes; pre‑tax income +5% YoY .
    • Capital strength and returns: $129M buybacks, $1.04 dividend declared; RBC ~490%. CFO: “We remain confident in our ability to maintain a strong capital position while… returning capital to stockholders.” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Life sales softness: Policies issued (-11% YoY) and productivity (0.20) at the low end amid cost‑of‑living pressures; recruits (-16% YoY) and new reps (-10% YoY) also lower .
    • ISP sales-based margin compression: Sales-based variable margin totaled 1.23% vs 1.27% a year ago as variable growth-related expenses and commission true‑ups ran higher (CFO) .
    • Data methodology correction: Restated Canadian mutual fund outflows/rollforward statistics (immaterial to financials); net flows remained positive after restatement .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($M)$788.1 $804.8 $793.3
Adjusted Operating Revenues ($M)$790.1 $803.6 $796.0
Net Income (Cont. Ops) ($M)$167.7 $169.1 $178.3
Diluted EPS (GAAP, Cont. Ops)$4.98 $5.05 $5.40
Diluted Adjusted Operating EPS (non‑GAAP)$5.03 $5.02 $5.46
Adjusted Net Operating Income ($M)$169.2 $168.1 $180.4

Estimates vs Actual (S&P Global for consensus; asterisked values are from S&P Global)

  • EPS: Primary EPS Consensus Mean $5.20* vs actual $5.46 → beat (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Revenue: Consensus $789.9M* vs actual $793.3M → beat (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
Metric (Q2 2025)ConsensusActual
Primary EPS5.20*5.46
Revenue ($M)789.9*793.3
# EPS Estimates9*
# Revenue Estimates4*

Segment performance (Adjusted Operating)

SegmentQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Term Life Revenues ($M)426.9 457.8 441.8
ISP Revenues ($M)260.9 290.8 298.3
Corporate & Other Revenues ($M)53.0 54.9 55.9
Term Life Pre‑tax Income ($M)147.8 146.8 155.0
ISP Pre‑tax Income ($M)74.8 81.3 79.4
Corporate & Other Pre‑tax Income ($M)0.9 (8.0) 2.7

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Life‑Licensed Sales Force145,789 152,167 152,592
Recruits96,563 100,867 80,924
New Life‑Licensed Reps14,402 12,339 12,903
Policies Issued100,768 86,415 89,850
Life Productivity (policies/rep/month)0.23 0.19 0.20
Issued Term Life Face Amount ($B)33.2 28.5 30.3
ISP Product Sales ($B)3.1 3.6 3.5
Avg Client Asset Values ($B)103.0 113.0 114.0
Closed U.S. Mortgage Volume ($M)99.6 93.5 132.8

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Term Life Adjusted Direct Premiums growthFY 2025Around 5% (unchanged) Around 5% Maintained
Term Life Benefits & Claims RatioFY 2025~58% (unchanged) ~58% Maintained
Term Life DAC + Insurance Commissions RatioFY 2025~12% (unchanged) ~12% Maintained
Term Life Operating MarginFY 2025~22% (unchanged) ~22% Maintained
Consolidated Other Operating ExpensesFY 2025+$40M (6–8%) (unchanged) +$40M (6–8%) Maintained
ISP Sales GrowthFY 2025Less than double digits (prior commentary) Above 10% Raised
DividendQ3 2025$1.04 per share, payable Sep 15, 2025 Announced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q‑2 and Q‑1)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Cost of living / macroQ4’24: “Cost of living pressure continued… expected to further affect middle‑income families in 2025” . Q1’25: “As economic uncertainty increases…” .CEO cites “wait and see” behavior pressuring Life sales; productivity at 0.20 .Persistent headwind, expected to normalize over time .
MortalityFavorable vs long‑term assumptions; potential to revise assumptions in Q3 review .Improving; potential favorable assumption change .
ISP mix / momentumQ4’24: strong VA demand; sales +41% YoY . Q1’25: VA and managed accounts drove outperformance .Sales +15% YoY; VA demand continues; FY sales growth now >10% .Sustained strength; mix supportive of fees .
Sales force & recruitingQ4’24 record 151,611 life‑licensed . Q1’25: 152,167 .July recruiting >50k on incentive; focus on growing securities/mortgage licenses .Growing breadth of licenses; recruiting responsive to incentives .
Technology & infrastructureQ4’24: higher tech costs . Q1’25: continued investments .Ongoing investments; opex guide reiterated .Continued spend to support growth .
Capital & liquidityRBC: 430% (Q4’24), 470% (Q1’25); buybacks/dividends active .RBC ~490%; $129M buybacks; $371M holdco cash .Strengthening capital and consistent returns .
Mortgage businessQ4’24 US vol $121.0M . Q1’25 $93.5M .US $132.8M; Canada referral +30%; rate cuts could unlock refinancing .Recovery underway; cyclical upside with rates .

Management Commentary

  • CEO (Glenn Williams): “Continued growth in our Investment and Savings Products segment, along with steady performance in Term Life, fueled another quarter of strong financial results.”
  • CFO (Tracy Tan): “Given the stable nature of our Term Life business, our full year guidance remains unchanged… ADP to grow around 5%… benefits and claims ratio around 58%… operating margin around 22%.”
  • CFO (on mortality): “We continue to see that the mortality has been favorable… quite a few percentages lower than our long term pre‑pandemic baseline… we will… consider changing long‑term assumptions” at Q3 review .
  • CEO (on ISP mix): “In uncertain times… variable annuity guarantees… have real appeal to consumers… partners take a long‑term view… we avoid products ‘beyond the pale’” .
  • CFO (on capital): “Holding company ended the quarter with $371M… RBC ratio was 490%… confident in maintaining a strong capital position while… returning capital” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Life sales headwinds and productivity: Management attributes softness to cost‑of‑living pressures and consumer “wait and see”; productivity may remain pressured near‑term but should normalize over time (mid‑range) as conditions stabilize .
  • Mortality and assumptions: Favorable mortality persists since 2022; Q3 assumption review may lower long‑term mortality assumptions, a potential earnings tailwind .
  • ISP sales trajectory: July was “still strong”; FY growth raised to >10% acknowledging tougher 2H comps; mix shift to VA and managed accounts continues .
  • Expense cadence: Some 2Q expense favorability was timing; tech investments likely ramp later in the year; full‑year +6–8% reiterated .
  • Capital deployment: RBC remains intentionally strong to support growth; company practically taking out the maximum permitted dividends from subs; prioritizes buybacks/dividends while supporting growth .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (Q2 2025): EPS 5.20* vs actual 5.46; Revenue $789.9M* vs actual $793.3M — both beat (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Forward consensus (as reference): For upcoming quarters, S&P Global shows Primary EPS estimates of 5.65* (Q4’25) and 5.49* (Q1’26), with revenue estimates of ~$836.5M* (Q4’25) and ~$846.9M* (Q1’26) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Implications: The EPS/revenue beat, raised ISP growth outlook (>10%), and potential favorable mortality assumption update in Q3 suggest upward bias to ISP revenue and consolidated EPS models; Term Life ratios and opex guidance were maintained, anchoring margin expectations .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Balanced engine: ISP momentum (+15% sales, record $120B AUA) offset softer Life volumes while Life margins stayed resilient (57.5% claims ratio; 23% operating margin) .
  • Quality beat: EPS and revenue beat consensus; non‑GAAP EPS +10% YoY; adjusted operating revenues +7% YoY .
  • Guidance intact with upside lever: Term Life ratios/opex guidance maintained; ISP sales growth raised to >10% on stronger demand and mix—supporting 2H run‑rate .
  • Potential Q3 catalyst: Annual assumption review may recognize structurally better mortality — possible reserve/earnings tailwind .
  • Capital deployment durable: $129M repurchases, $1.04 dividend, RBC ~490%, $371M holdco cash—ample capacity to fund growth and buybacks .
  • Watch near‑term headwinds: Life sales productivity likely remains at low end until consumer pressures ease; recruiting tactics (e.g., incentives) support field growth .
  • Trading lens: Narrative skew is positive on ISP strength and potential actuarial tailwinds; any clarity on mortality assumption changes and continued sales momentum are likely stock catalysts .

Note on Non‑GAAP: PRI presents adjusted operating metrics excluding investment gains/losses, mark‑to‑market adjustments, certain non‑recurring items, and coinsurance effects; reconciliations are provided in filings .

Estimates footnote: Asterisked consensus/estimate values are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.